Abstract: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity is mainly due to lower costs for higher-income people due to health problems, which in turn affects businesses that serve the rich and ultimately reduces the income and expenditure of low-paid workers. these enterprises. The model for predicting confirmed cases of COVID-19 is still under investigation. Recognizing the trend in confirmed cases in the region, governments are trying to control the pandemic using appropriate policies. However, generally accepted traditional mathematical methods and models for predicting pandemics are limited and do not always give accurate estimates. It should be noted that the analysis of the reliability of pandemic mortality data is a rather non-trivial task and it is difficult to determine the number of victims with confidence. However, the probability of these indicators can be offset by analyzing by comparing data from «similar» countries. The aim of the article is to present the results of the analysis of the reliability of information on the David-19 epidemic based on information from global online data aggregators, its relationship with the geographical location of countries and their population. In this paper, the authors propose an improved method of such analysis and appropriate software. The results of the analysis showed that the most probable number of deaths from COVID-19 in Ukraine should be 25% higher than the stated data. This method has a better adaptation effect for regions with a large population base, and the forecasting effect is more accurate. Analysis of overall mortality during a pandemic and comparison of these data with average mortality in other countries can serve as a more accurate, albeit somewhat preliminary, estimate of the actual number of pandemic victims and its impact on Ukraine’s economy